There was a huge amount of excitement when The Woodlands opened the East Shore neighborhood between Lake Woodlands and Grogan’s Mill Road. Speculative lot sales drove much of the activity as higher-end buyers in the booming ’05 & ’06 market feared that waiting would mean escelated lot pricing and scarcity.
Today, The Woodlands East Shore is definitely a beautiful community from 3-story brownstones to the 10,000 SF+ palaces along the water. However, sales in this micro-market have declined to a slow, painful drip for those homeowners who need to move on from the well-done neighborhood.
The signs of owner motivation and distress are evident by the “For Sale or For Lease” signs prominent in the neighborhood. These signs are a unique tell that the owners are now at the point that they want to move on by any and all means. Homes for sale in East Shore are lingering on the market and selling in many cases below what they cost to buy new. Homes for lease are leasing at such a steal that it the discounts are drastically unique in The Woodlands rental market.
In most homes, a good rule of thumb for monthly rental value is 1% of the home value. In most cases, a $300,000 home will rent for $3,000 a month and so on. In The Woodlands East Shore today, I saw several $600,000+ townhomes and homes asking for +/- $3,000 per month. That makes East Shore an amazing rental opportunity. For what many people are paying for a standard home in The Woodlands, they could have the premier location and amenities of a like new East Shore home instead.
What will reverse this trend? I think The Woodlands East Shore is in this situation because it finds itself in what I call the “discretionary price range.” In The Woodlands, this is that $600,000 – $700,000 price range where some homes can sell for that value based on their features, upgrades, location, etc. However, buyers have the choice to buy other homes of equivalent size at 20% lower cost. In times like these, people are less likely to pay the 20% premium and will settle for the home that still meets their needs and does not have the bells and whistles. When people start feeling more confident about their economic security, then I think The Woodlands East Shore will recover its former glory, complete its development and the current owners will benefit from their investment and tactical patience.
